With an increased risk of an El Nino weather pattern forming, members of a drought resilience project are urging farmers and communities to be ready for reduced rainfall.
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The latest climate driver update from the Bureau of Meteorology showed the Pacific Ocean was El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, meaning it was in neither La Nina or El Nino. The bureau declared El Nino watch after the end of La Nina in March.
Professor Michael Tausz, who heads the Victoria Drought Resilience Adoption and Innovation Hub (Vic Hub), said although an El Nino may not develop this year, people should still prepare for it.
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Fifty per cent chance of El Nino
"A neutral ENSO indicates around a 50 per cent chance of El Nino developing this year - which is in the region of double the normal likelihood," he said.
"Looking at historical records shows us that El Nino has developed in roughly half the years that the ENSO outlook reached El Nino watch status. So a 'watch' is no guarantee that El Nino will actually occur, rather it signals that some of the typical signs are in place."
According to the bureau, El Nino typically suppresses rainfall in eastern Australia during the winter and spring months.
Nine of the ten driest winter to spring periods for eastern Australia occurred during El Nino years, and severe droughts of 1982, 1994, 2006 and 2015 were all associated with El Nino.
This month in Bendigo has been particularly dry, with just 7.2 millimeters of rainfall recorded until Wednesday, well below the mean rainfall for May of 46.9 millimeters.
Vic Hub regional director Fiona Best said the hub had been funded by the federal government's Future Drought Fund to prepare businesses and communities for drought.
Ms Best, also chief executive of Birchip Cropping Group, said the climate modelling meant it was an important time for all farm businesses to put various elements of their operation under a 'drought-resilience microscope'."
"Some top-line examples are business planning, soil cover and fodder or grain on hand, through to understanding the climate and drought-risk information for resilience - and all of these are focal areas of the Vic Hub's activities."
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Looking ahead
Ms Best said farming business owners and producers should ask questions related to financial aspects such as equity ratios, cash flow and reserves, and their ability to access cash.
"Elements specific to different farming sectors include fodder on hand - is there enough, if so, for how long? Will feed need to be bought in? When? What? From where?," she said.
"Or scrutinising the risk profile of various crop rotations - does a crop type or variety need to be changed? Does planting time need to be changed? Does paddock preparation need to be approached differently? Do I have a stock containment area established and is it fit for purpose?
"These are just a few ideas, but this 'drought-resilience microscope' process is vitally important for farmers to identify areas of opportunity and risk within their business."
For more information on the Vic Hub, visit vicdroughthub.org.au.
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Jonathon Magrath
Jonathon has been living and working in Bendigo since March 2021, currently working as a general reporter. Contact him on jonathon.magrath@austcommunitymedia.com.au.
Jonathon has been living and working in Bendigo since March 2021, currently working as a general reporter. Contact him on jonathon.magrath@austcommunitymedia.com.au.
