Meteorologists are taking an ebb-and-flow approach to "topsy-turvy" rain in Bendigo over June and July 2023.
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The city saw a historically dry July, only receiving around half its all-years average, with 23.8 millimetres of rain falling at Bendigo Airport compared to a long-term average of 52.4mm.
Despite the dry month, Bendigo's rainfall is still sitting above the two month average on account of a very wet June, according to a senior climatologist.
"In June Bendigo airport had 110 millimeters, which is more than double its long-term average," Jonathan Pollock, senior climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, said.
"So certainly July was very dry across the state, but it's been a bit of a topsy-turvy two months looking back for June to July."
Mr Pollock said it was too early to attribute the recent weather to a looming El Nino or the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
"Those two phenomena are expected to develop in winter or early spring so they haven't fully started yet, and they still might not," he said.
An El Nino event is characterised by low rainfall during winter and spring, increasing the risk of drought, heatwaves and bushfires.
The IOD sees a change in temperature gradients across the Indian Ocean resulting in changes of rising and descending moisture and air.
On Tuesday, August 1 the Bureau of Meteorology held off on declaring an El Nino event, but said a development is "considered likely" in the coming weeks.
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In terms of future outlook, Mr Pollock said Bendigo could expect below average rainfall as spring approaches.
"The spring outlook is showing Bendigo along with most of Victoria is likely to have below average rainfall, but at same time temperatures are likely to be higher than average," he said.
"And that forecast for late winter into spring is consistent with an El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean dipole developing."
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