$21.2 million was wiped instantly from Greater Bendigo's tourist industry when the government cancelled the 2026 Commonwealth Games.
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The Advertiser can shed new light on what could have been a cash bonanza for Bendigo and the wider regional Victorian economy, a month after the shock news the Games were off.
Tourists heading only to Bendigo sports events might have injected tens of millions into the regional Victorian economy over the 12 days and beyond, this masthead has concluded after looking into the numbers.
An expected 10,500 tourists a day were expected to have spent an average of $1.7 million a day, excluding the ticket costs.
That figure is potentially conservative as it does not include spending by 6166 regional Victorians at Bendigo sport events, or the advertising and visitor boosts from wall-to-wall international television coverage.
The Advertiser's look into the costs was limited by available figures on Melbournians, interstate visitors and international visitors from a mix of sources including a government dossier deemed "highly confidential" until August 18.
That business case is the one the Andrews government says accidently lowballed expected Games costs by trillions of dollars.
The government revealed the blunder in July at a morning press conference as it cancelled the Games.
The Advertiser supplemented gaps in the dossier's numbers with figures the City of Greater Bendigo was known to have been working with as it planned its part in the ill-fated Games.
The scale of Bendigo's tourist loss
What has emerged is a portrait of a lost opportunity to turbocharge Bendigo's tourism industry, which may prove difficult for the government to replace.
The council expected to draw crowds to the city and the CBD with 200,000 sports tickets and a major cultural program for each day of competition.
People living outside of central Victoria could have snapped up 126,000 of those tickets, based on estimates in the government dossier.
The graph below breaks down how much money Melbournians, interstate visitors and international tourists might have spent in regional Victoria thanks to Games sports held in Bendigo.
It suggests Melbournians alone could have spent a maximum $8.4 million in regional Victoria, excluding ticket costs.
Those from interstate could have spent $8.8 million and international tourists $4 million.
This next graph shows how long the government expected people to stay in both regional Victoria and Melbourne.
Neither of the graphs include the tourists who might have visited the city for cultural events linked to the Games. Nor does it include the workers, athletes, officials, volunteers and others needed to make Victoria 2026 a success.
Finally, it does not count the boost to other forms of trade that cities might have received from hosting the Commonwealth Games.
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Some past host cities have reaped a $750 million benefit in trade deals and investments and an increase in their gross domestic product, according to the one-secret dossier.
It is unclear what that might have meant for Bendigo, considering the city was one of a number of co-hosts.
What the government says
Victoria's government has indicated it cancelled the Games over projected cost blowouts for infrastructure, not dramatic changes to the number of tourists it expected.
"When the Commonwealth Games needed a host city to step in at the last minute, we were willing to help - but not at any price, and not without a big lasting benefit for regional Victoria," a spokesperson said.
They said the government was working with industry on a new $170 million regional tourism package to help compensate for the tourism hit.
Whether that package would bring the same influx of visitors to Bendigo as 12 days of intensive international sport competitions remains to be seen.
The government expected tourism numbers to be elevated for several years after the last athletes left, similar to that witnessed after Melbourne's 2006 Games.
How the Advertiser calculated numbers in this story
The Bendigo Advertiser used two key sources to make its calculations for this article.
The first was the City of Greater Bendigo's estimates about the number of ticketholders and others expected in the city over 12 days of Games competitions.
The council was assuming 200,000 ticketholders would converge on Bendigo for the Games, though that was still a rough estimate by the time all plans were canned.
The second key source was a government-commissioned business case presented to Victoria's premier and cabinet in the lead up to the 2022 announcement Bendigo and other cities would host the 2026 Games.
This masthead used key figures contained in Appendix G, Table 2 of that business case.
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That section of the document estimated 37 per cent of ticket holders would be regional Victorians (including Bendigonians). Another 35 per cent would be Melbournians, 20 per cent from interstate and eight per cent international.
The business case assumed each Melbourne ticketholder would spend $120 a day in regional Victoria, interstate visitors $220 and international tourists $250.
The authors of the government business case based those assumptions off of attendance data from the Gold Coast 2018 Games.
The same authors did not give any indication of how many ticketholders were expected at Bendigo Games events. At the time, they were yet to decide which sports and venues the city would hold.
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Tom O'Callaghan
I grew up in Bendigo and I want to tell your stories.
I grew up in Bendigo and I want to tell your stories.
