BFNL: The big question for each side heading into finals week two

Will the qualifying final winner (Golden Square) be better off heading into the second semi-final for continuing their winning run (15 in a row) and form, or is the minor premiership winner (Sandhurst) in better shape after a week's rest?

This century, the record for minor premiers in the second semi-final is 13 wins and eight losses.

Of those eight losses, only two (2006 and 2022 Gisborne) have recovered to win the flag.

Read more: Football preview, tips, how they match-up - BFNL, HDFNL, LVFNL

While history suggests the week off slightly favours the top team, the fact there have been some dominant sides throughout the past two decades, including those great Gisborne, Golden Square, and Strathfieldsaye teams, skews it slightly.

For the Dragons, it has helped them get some key cogs 100 per cent right, with Joel Wharton, Cooper Smith and Isaac Carracher recovering from niggles, while experienced veteran Nick Stagg will have had 21 days rest (managed in round 18) by the time Saturday 2.20pm rolls around.

Since returning from the Essendon VFL setup, full-time mid-season Dragons midfielder Sam Conforti has arguably been the most damaging player in the BFNL, averaging 30.8 disposals and two goals a game.

The big conundrum for Bulldogs coach Christian Carter is whether they waste one of their own gun midfielders on him or risk letting Conforti rip the game to shreds.

Conforti was the Dragons' best player in their last meeting in round 12 with 24 disposals and four goals, but the Bulldogs did win.

In round 16, Conforti received heavy attention from Gisborne and was restricted to only 13 disposals by three-quarter-time, showing a close watch on the superstar can be effective if done right.

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The more important query might be do the Bulldogs have someone capable of sticking with him on the inside and outside.

Ryan Hartley would be the perfect man to counter his influence in and under but would struggle to stick with Conforti in the open spaces of the QEO, whereas young gun Ricky Monti would be far more suited to nullifying his impact around the ground.

There is a strong possibility Conforti goes forward for periods as well, which means it might have to be a team effort to stop him rather than a single man.

Since the midway point of the season (round nine), Strathfieldsaye has been poor starters.

Not including games against the struggling bottom three (Kangaroo Flat, Castlemaine and Maryborough), after round nine, the Storm have only won one out of seven first quarters and two out of seven first halves.

Read more: Fast start sets up Golden Square's BFNL qualifying final victory

They were beaten to the punch by the Bulldogs last Saturday, conceding six goals to two in the opening stanza, but did look tired and should be better for the run.

Their worst first term in that stretch was against this week's opponents, Eaglehawk, in round 14 when the Hawks outscored them 8.3 (51) to 1.0 (6).

It took until elimination final weekend, but it seems like the Hawks have at last got their structure right in regards to their talls.

With skipper Cameron McGlashan injured for the back third of the regular season, Darcy Richards being suspended for three weeks, and assistant coach Jarryn Geary's retirement, for a period the Hawks were all over the place in attack.

Read more: Hawks outplay South Bendigo in BFNL elimination final

Clayton Holmes was tried forward and looked dangerous but now looks settled back in his regular post as a defender, with Richards and McGlashan combining for six goals against South Bendigo last Sunday.

Holmes isn't just crucial to a back six that has lost Charlie Langford for the season, but now, with some fellow big men back in the 22, he has been able to give ruckman Connor Dalgleish a chop out after he spent 100 per cent of game time in the ruck from round 14 to 18.

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