Could this be what Central Vic footy looks like in a relegation shake-up?

It has been floated twice over the past four years by the former AFL Central Victoria commission to no avail and at least having the discussion again was this week backed by Castlemaine president Caleb Kuhle.

Remember in August last year when AFLCV proposed what would have been the biggest shake-up to football in the region since the early 1980s with the potential formation of a new senior football-netball league as early as this season, while also suggesting a two division Bendigo Football Netball League with a promotion and relegation system for consideration.

And during the COVID-abandoned 2020 season the AFLCV commission met twice with the Bendigo, Heathcote District, Loddon Valley and North Central leagues regarding potential new governance models and a restructuring of competitions.

In that 2020 instance leagues were presented with a proposed Central Victorian Football-Netball League structure featuring four "sectional" competitions.

While neither the 2020 or 2024 proposals altered the AFLCV league landscape, both came off the back of AFLCV determining there was sufficient appetite from clubs for change to occur in the region.

On the back of a football-netball shake-up having been twice raised at commission level over the past four years, but no changes made, it's interesting to note what is happening down Geelong way in this space.

In September of 2023 AFL Barwon commenced a Future of Football and Netball Project aimed at developing a competition structure addressing regional opportunities and challenges.

It sounds very similar to what AFLCV had hoped to achieve when it put structural change on the table in 2020 and 2023.

AFLCV's 2020 discussion came off the back of a 2019 review into underage competitions in the region, which stated: "Many clubs expressed concern with the current structure of football within the region.

"All senior football and netball competition structures should promote the sustainability of clubs, while factoring in the following - competitive balance; meet the growth or decline of population within the region; provide all clubs the opportunity to find their competitive and sustainable level; and promote competition equalisation."

PREMIER DATA: See how every player in round seven of the BFNL performed

And last year then AFLCV region manager Craig Armstead said of the commission's proposals for a region overhaul, which came following a forum at La Trobe University involving Bendigo, Heathcote District and Loddon Valley league clubs: "What we've taken out of last weekend is there is a strong appetite for change to occur in the region.

"There's a number of clubs looking to change leagues through this off-season, which indicates they don't feel they are in the right place now, and with the enthusiasm of our clubs last Sunday in terms of how it could look different in the future, we believe there is enough indication for a level of change that is required."

The concept of divisional leagues is back in the spotlight at a time when Maryborough after years of constant struggle on field and dwindling player numbers in the Bendigo league weighs up its future beyond this season.

If Maryborough departs the Bendigo league at the end of this year it will leave the competition with just eight clubs following the loss at the end of last season of Kyneton to Riddell District.

So what is the basis of the AFL Barwon structure change?

In a nutshell the structure involves two AFL Barwon competitions - Geelong (the higher-ranked league) and Bellarine - and is based on a club championship framework.

The club championship is derived from each club's performance in its senior and reserves football and A and B grade netball teams whereby points are allocated based on ladder positions at the end of the home and away season.

For instance, 12 points for finishing on top through to one point for finishing 12^th.

After a two-year cycle (initially 2024 and 2025) there is a non-mandatory promotion offered to either the highest or second-highest ranked Bellarine club according to the club championship standings to advance into the Geelong league.

If promotion is accepted the lowest-ranked Geelong club as per the club championship would drop back to the Bellarine league.

If neither the first or second-highest ranked Bellarine clubs want to be promoted then there would be no changes and the cycle would begin for the next two years.

One of the major challenges of a divisional competition is that a club's football and netball programs may not necessarily align in terms of competitiveness.

In the Bendigo league Kangaroo Flat is an example of a club whose netball results are significantly stronger than its football results over an extended period of time, while Golden Square for several years now has been the opposite.

Elmore (significantly stronger netball than football of late) is another example.

AFL Barwon's club championship model seeks to factor in both sports in determining a club's overall best fit.

So how would such a model work in the AFLCV region if it was to involve the Bendigo, Heathcote District and Loddon Valley leagues?

For a start, here's how a club championship framework would have looked for each league over the previous two years featuring each side's senior and reserves football and top two netball teams based on awarding points as per finishing ladder positions for each side.

In the case of Bendigo - which includes Kyneton as it's based on 2022/23 - it's on a sliding scale of 10 points (1st) down to one point (last) and in the Heathcote District and Loddon Valley leagues it's nine points (1st) down to one point (last).

1 - SANDHURST

Club points: 69

Football: 31 Netball: 38

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2 - GISBORNE

Club points: 66

Football: 32 Netball: 34

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3 - KANGAROO FLAT

Club points: 52

Football: 16 Netball: 36

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4 - STRATHFIELDSAYE

Club points: 48

Football: 31 Netball: 17

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5 - GOLDEN SQUARE

Club points: 45

Football: 37 Netball: 8

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6 - SOUTH BENDIGO

Club points: 44

Football: 19 Netball: 25

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7 - EAGLEHAWK

Club points: 41

Football: 27 Netball: 14

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8 - CASTLEMAINE

Club points: 34

Football: 7 Netball: 27

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9 - KYNETON

Club points: 32

Football: 18 Netball: 14

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10 - MARYBOROUGH

Club points: 15

Football: 5 Netball: 10

1 - WHITE HILLS

Club points: 63

Football: 29 Netball: 34

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2 - MOUNT PLEASANT

Club points: 54

Football: 31 Netball: 23

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3 - ELMORE

Club points: 46

Football: 12 Netball: 34

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4 - NORTH BENDIGO

Club points: 42

Football: 27 Netball: 15

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5 - COLBINABBIN

Club points: 41

Football: 15 Netball: 26

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6 - HEATHCOTE

Club points: 36

Football: 24 Netball: 12

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7 - LBU

Club points: 33

Football: 24 Netball: 9

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8 - HUNTLY

Club points: 27

Football: 10 Netball: 17

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9 - LEITCHVILLE-GUNBOWER

Club points: 18

Football: 8 Netball: 10

1 - MARONG

Club points: 65

Football: 36 Netball: 29

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2 - PYRAMID HILL

Club points: 52

Football: 31 Netball: 21

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3 - MAIDEN GULLY YCW

Club points: 45

Football: 13 Netball: 32

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4 - BRIDGEWATER

Club points: 43

Football: 20 Netball: 23

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5 - NEWBRIDGE

Club points: 39

Football: 16 Netball: 23

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6 - MITIAMO

Club points: 37

Football: 15 Netball: 22

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7 - BL-SERPENTINE

Club points: 33

Football: 25 Netball: 8

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8 - INGLEWOOD

Club points: 23

Football: 16 Netball: 7

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9 - CALIVIL UNITED

Club points: 22

Football: 8 Netball: 14

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With the club championship framework of 2022/2023 calculated, how could it have been applied to the AFL Central Victoria region and existing Bendigo, Heathcote District and Loddon Valley leagues this year?

For a start, we're considering the strength of leagues in order of Bendigo, Heathcote District and Loddon Valley and running three divisions as opposed to AFL Barwon's two divisions.

DIVISION 1 (10 teams) - Sandhurst, Gisborne, Kangaroo Flat, Strathfieldsaye, Golden Square, South Bendigo, Eaglehawk, Castlemaine, White Hills, Marong.

This option gets the top division back to what the BFNL considers its ideal number of 10 clubs.

Maryborough is removed as the lowest ranked BFNL club and so is Kyneton as it has left the region.

White Hills and Marong as the two district league clubs with the most club championship points are included.

18 rounds - all clubs play 18 home and away games, top five finals.

Has significantly higher salary cap and player points allocations than other two divisions to create better opportunity to genuinely differentiate itself as the region's premier competition.

DIVISION 2 (9 teams) - Maryborough, Mount Pleasant, Elmore, North Bendigo, Colbinabbin, Heathcote, Lockington-Bamawm United, Huntly, Pyramid Hill.

Maryborough drops from the Bendigo league and Pyramid Hill as the second-ranked Loddon Valley side behind the already-promoted Marong is elevated.

Would be some extensive travel for Maryborough with six away games over 100kms away - Mount Pleasant (113 kms), Elmore (113 kms), Colbinabbin (125 kms), Heathcote (106 kms), Lockington (140 kms) and Pyramid Hill (125 kms).

18 rounds - all clubs play 16 home and away games, have two byes, top five finals.

DIVISION 3 (8 teams) - Leitchville-Gunbower, Maiden Gully YCW, Bridgewater, Newbridge, Mitiamo, BL-Serpentine, Inglewood, Calivil United.

Includes Leitchville-Gunbower as the lowest-ranked HDFNL club over the past two years under the framework, plus the LVFNL clubs ranked No.3 to 9 in the club championship.

To be fair to the Bombers though, the club on its form this year across the four grades being judged is currently ranked No.2 in the HDFNL club championship for 2024.

16 rounds - all clubs play 16 home and away games (play five teams twice and two teams three times), top four finals.

In order to get a spread of nine clubs across both divisions two and three, would the Cohuna Kangas - who sought to join the HDFNL last year - be interested in such a concept?

For the sake of this exercise, the divisions are based on all clubs eligible for promotion accepting the offer.

What could this year had looked like had the status quo remained as is with the Bendigo league (minus Kyneton), but the 18 Heathcote District and Loddon Valley league clubs were combined in the 2022-23 club championship framework rather than ranked separately and then split into two divisions (top nine and bottom nine)?

DIVISION 1 (Bendigo league as currently constructed) - Sandhurst, Gisborne, Kangaroo Flat, Strathfieldsaye, Golden Square, South Bendigo, Eaglehawk, Castlemaine, Maryborough.

DIVISION 2 - Marong (65 points), White Hills (63), Mount Pleasant (54), Pyramid Hill (52), Elmore (46), Maiden Gully YCW (45), Bridgewater (43), North Bendigo (42), Colbinabbin (41).

DIVISION 3 - Newbridge (39), Mitiamo (37), Heathcote (36), Lockington-Bamawm United (33), BL-Serpentine (33), Huntly (27), Inglewood (23), Calivil United (22), Leitchville-Gunbower (18).

The promotion/relegation system could then come into play after either one or two years based on the club championship framework.

Conceptually, promotion/relegation in the region is a huge shift and presents a raft of challenges ranging from geography, the differing levels of competitiveness between some club's football and netball teams, and varying levels of ability to fill a full quota of teams throughout all grades.

I like the AFL Barwon concept that promotion isn't mandatory, but available to those clubs that earn it and aspire to compete at a higher level.

The flipside though is that if the promotion offer is not accepted then such a system is of no benefit, for example, in the situation that Maryborough finds itself in where the Magpies are now clearly fighting out of their weight division in the Bendigo league.

One element of a promotion/relegation is based around competitive balance and providing clubs the opportunity to find their sustainable level.

It sounds similar to what AFL Victoria's player points and salary caps introduced in 2016 aimed to achieve, but for the record, since their introductions the average margin in senior games across the Bendigo, Heathcote District and Loddon Valley leagues are a lopsided:

Bendigo - 67 points.

Heathcote District - 59 points.

Loddon Valley - 57 points.

Interesting to note a Bendigo Advertiser online poll earlier this week asking readers if they are in favour of a promotion/relegation system in the region had 78 per cent support.

The Bendigo, Heathcote District and Loddon Valley leagues are all competitions with an incredibly long and proud heritage and tradition, but football-netball is a changing landscape these days.

Not in any of those leagues specifically, but close by, Maryborough Rovers and Royal Park have merged this year to become the Maryborough Giants and North Central league clubs Wycheproof-Narraport and Nullawil will do the same next year.

Kyneton is no longer in the BFNL, Maryborough is contemplating doing the same and there's only four clubs in the Loddon Valley league with under-18s. What's to come next?

As Castlemaine president Kuhle said earlier this week on the topic of promotion/relegation: "I don't think just saying 'no, this is the way it has always been' and sticking your nose up at every opportunity for change is the answer when you have clubs dwindling across football and netball."